Feb 1

Premier League football is getting tight at the top as the season comes into the home straight. Sure, there is plenty of life left in the season, but there seems to be plenty of life left in some of these teams as well. Chelsea seem to have a firm hold on the top spot and they will take some shaking to remove. Manchester United are starting to find their end of season form traveling to Arsenal over the weekend and giving them a lesson.

Arsenal are in a no-mans-land situation at present. They can almost challenge for one of the top two spots but seem to come undone at the last leap. The weekend’s game was a good example. A win could have set them up nicely, the loss has set them back. At the same time, there are no real challengers to their third spot on the table. There is no doubt they will come, but at present they are well entrenched there.

It’s fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh where the real interest is at present and things are really tight there. Spurs hold 4th with 42 points followed by Liverpool and Manchester City on 41 and Aston Villa on 40 points. This weekend’s games look to be interesting with Liverpool perhaps having the easiest task of the four. They host Everton and whilst the Toffees are starting to find some form, so too is Liverpool. City, on the other hand, travel to Hull. It should be an easy win but Hull do surprise playing at home – it won’t be as easy as some people think.

The real game will be between Spurs and Villa. The best result for them both would be a point each – it would at least keep them in touch. Villa are at home and will have the upper hand. It’s a great race for the Champions League places. Bookmakers had dumped Liverpool but they are now having a rethink there. Manchester City is the favourite from the four – and given their multi-million pound team, so they should be. Watch out for Villa – they have been quietly motoring along this season and could surprise everyone. They are at the best odds of the quartet too. We could be in for a great finish this season.

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Jan 29

Andy Murray is through to his second Grand Slam final following a hard fought four set victory of Marin Cilic at the Australian Open. He will face either Roger Federer or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Although Federer is a short priced favourite, he has had to do it tough so far with some long matches. Murray on the other hand has had a relatively smooth run into the final. The four setter against Cilic being just what he needed to sharpen him up.

Murray’s biggest enemy now will be time. He has a longer wait than Federer before their final’s appearance. However, if Federer is faced with another five setter then the time between matches may not be long enough for his liking.

Federer (if he defeats Tsonga) will go in as both the clear and sentimental favourite having lost to Nadal in last years final. Murray will go in as the underdog again, but that should suit him. I have a feeling this could be his year. He is long overdue for a Grand Slam victory and this is probably his best surface – I know we will all be cheering him home – except perhaps those betting on Federer. Bookmakers are playing safe with both players, with Federer at evens to win the title and Murray close behind at 6/5. They are short odds, but then they are two of the best players in the world. Tsonga is a 20/1 chance.

In the women’s draw, it’s down to Serena Williams and Justine Henin. Two great players that have a fine record between them. Like Clijsters in the US Open, this tournament is Henin’s first major since returning to pro tennis after a long lay off. Can she repeat Clijsters’ win is another matter.

I think she can. Williams has shown a lot of courage and spirit to fight back when matches seemed lost. However, she cannot afford to get into that position against Henin – she simply won’t let her back in. Henin herself has fought back from a seemingly hopeless position to win her way through. Of the two, Williams has had a lot of tough and long matches. She doesn’t play a lot of games in the lead up to a Grand Slam these days and that may prove to be her downfall.

In tennis betting, Serena Williams is the favourite by a slender margin at 5/6. Henin is at evens and may well start favourite. If the match goes to three sets, I think Henin may just have a little more in the tank. Either way – it will be a great game to watch.

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Jan 27

Aston Villa were being touted as a possible Champions League prospect by many football writers. However, their season seems to have hit a wall with Premier League points hard to come by. They have slipped from 3rd on the table to 7th and a loss tonight could see them start to lose touch with the top six. Birmingham are only a win behind in 8th place as well placing further pressure on them.

I say they need a win, and they do, but they will have their work cut out tonight when they host Premier League contenders Arsenal. The visitors will want to fight back following a humiliating three goal drubbing at the hands of Stoke last time out. The problem for Arsenal is who to play and who is still fit?

Online sportsbooks have Arsenal as clear favourites at 13/10 with the home side quoted at 5/2. I have a feeling we will see a different Villa tonight. They need to attack because they need the three points. The best you can achieve with defence is a draw and that really won’t help them. Expect a high scoring game with Villa to win 3-2.

In tonight’s other games, Chelsea (1/4) should cruise home against Birmingham (14/1); Everton (4/6) likewise against Sunderland (5/1); while the game between Wigan (3/1) and Blackburn (1/1) should be entertaining. The Rovers are at home and deserve to be favourites. Wigan are underachievers, winning games you expect them to lose and vice-versa. I think they may cause a minor upset today and win at reasonably good odds for us.

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Jan 25

The first tennis major for the year is up for grabs in Melbourne as the players head into week 2 – the championship week – of the Australian Open. The usual names are there – Serena and Venus Williams, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray.

Missing so far are Maria Sharapova, Kim Clijsters, Elena Dementieva, Dinara Safina and Juan Martin Del Potro. There have been plenty of surprises in the women’s tournament, however, apart from del Potro, the men’s have gone according to seedings.

Can week 2 bring more surprises? It generally does, the trick being to predict those surprises and get our money on at good tennis betting odds. The first surprise may well come early this morning. In fact, it may well be over before you can get your money on. If you’re up early, have a small flutter on Hewitt to bring down Federer. You can get as much as 10/1 Hewitt although late money has seen his price firm into 8/1. Federer was quoted at 1/10, but he has eased a fraction to 1/9.

There may be another good bet tomorrow morning when Marin Cilic takes on Andy Roddick. Cilic is playing well and ended the hopes of del Potro. Roddick is 4/5 in early betting with Cilic at 5/4. Bookmakers will gladly take your money on these two and if they do the right thing, I will gleefully take it back with interest.

Is there a smokey in the pack waiting to win the tournament? I think there could be in the form of Nikolay Davydenko. He won the season ending tournament in London last year and then started the year by beating both Federer and Nadal in Doha. In fact, he is 2 for 2 against Federer so current form would suggest another good show here. Here is 7/1 to take the title. Federer remains favourite at 5/2 from Murray at 9/2, Nadal at 5/1 and Djokovic also at 7/1.

In the women’s draw, don’t discount Venus Williams (6/1). She is quietly cruising along and appears to be the best value left in the pack. Serena Williams (7/4) will need to get past Sam Stosur first, a player who has caused Serena difficulties in the past. An interesting week ahead.

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Jan 22

Football’s premier cup competition, The FA Cup, returns this weekend with Premier League teams in action everywhere. In the main, there are some easy games on offer, giving many teams the option of playing younger players. For others, they could be some interesting battles. Here’s our preview of games with a little value in the FA Cup betting odds:

Reading (13/8) take on Burnley (15/8) in a game that should be entertaining. Online sportsbooks are struggling to separate the two teams but I fancy Burnley to win. They seem to thrive on these mid-week competitions while Reading are struggling to regain their form from last season.

Portsmouth (13/8) host Sunderland (9/5) and, while they may have won this competition a couple of years ago, Portsmouth are struggling both on and off the field. Non player payments haven’t helped the team’s morale – another victory for the visiting side.

West Brom (7/5) are hosting Newcastle (9/4), an interesting contest given they were both Premier League clubs last year and now find themselves in the Championship League. Newcastle have regrouped and are playing reasonably well. West Brom are in a similar situation although I don’t feel they are quite as strong. Newcastle to win in another game that should be entertaining if nothing else.

The Stoke (4) – Arsenal (13/15) game on Sunday interests me. Arsenal have a really good group of young players – if the Gunners can hold on to them all they may be a force to reckon with in 1-2 years time. This young group seem to play quite well mid-week so they are entitled to favouritism.

Stoke, on the other hand, are hard to beat at home. They seem to revel in taking the big name teams right to the wire and have taken points off almost all the top flight teams – but only when playing at home. At 4/1, I think Stoke are great value. They won’t find it easy to win, but I think will in a very tight game.

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Jan 20

Liverpool host Spurs tonight in a match that could put the rest of the season on the line. Liverpool have been one of the top four football teams for several years now, but this season has seen them slip down the tables in the Premier League, eliminated early in the midweek cups, and eliminated from the Champions League early.

They can lose tonight and mathematically still make the top four or five. However, will they be able to rebuild their psyche if they lose tonight? Also under fire is their manager – will he survive if they lose tonight? After all, it is a home match that most would expect them to win.

Bookmakers and punters are wary with the Red’s price continuing to ease all the time. Interestingly, Spurs have firmed into 2/1 but while Liverpool continue to ease, Spurs haven’t broken that 2/1 barrier – good news for us. Liverpool are currently out to 16/11 having been almost 1/1 late last week. Injuries and continued poor form have seen them fade in betting.

The big question is – can Liverpool beat Spurs? The answer is a simple yes – if they turn up tuned up and ready to play. Spurs have several weaknesses themselves that other sides have exploited in recent times. If Liverpool can learn from those games, they have a good chance to win.

My initial thoughts were to back Spurs at 2/1. However, I think Liverpool may be just motivated enough to win tonight and at 16/11 are pretty good value. If you want a saver, back the draw at 5/2 – that’s a result that is quite on the cards as well.

In tonight’s other match, forget the betting and look on. Arsenal are at 1/5 with some bookmakers to defeat Bolton (15/1). I cannot argue with that – however, when football betting odds get that short – there is no value, especially when a mis-timed kick could turn a game and see you do your money cold.

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Jan 18

If you believe in patterns then you will probably be wanting to take Serena Williams on in the Australian Open that starts today. It is the year’s first Grand Slam event and often delivers surprise results. Here’s an interesting statistic – Serena William has only ever won this event in odd years – 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009. Can she break this pattern this year?

History aside, the women’s event promises to be the most competitive from many years with up to ten players having distinct chances if they get it right on the day. Online bookmakers are having difficulty framing markets around the top four. Here is a run down of the top eight women:

    Serena Williams – 10/3 – Williams has 12 majors to her credit and is looking to beat the even number hoodoo for this event. She lost her lead match to Dementieva in straight sets – always a danger – forget the hoodoo.

    Kim Clijsters - 7/2 – pressing Williams for favourite in this event. Won last year’s US Open after being out of the game for several years. Has become a crowd favourite in Australia so you can almost give her home ground advantage. Won the Brisbane international as her lead up event and will be very hard to beat.

    Justine Henin – 5/1 – pressed Clijsters in Brisbane International final – her lead up event. Has been out of the game for a while but has matured and is playing good tennis. Good value bet to make final.

    Maria Sharapova – 10/1 – returning to tennis after shoulder surgery and a stint of modeling. Is a class act on her day but you have to wonder if she is 100% committed to tennis now with so much happening in her life as a business woman/model/fashion designer. On her day she would beat all of these – but is this her day?

    Elena Dementieva – 10/1 – has been dubbed the best female player not to have won a major event – yet. This could be her year. She is playing well and defeated Serena Williams in straight sets in the Sydney International last week. Best value of the top ten and worth a serious look. You can get as much as 14/1 if you shop around.

    Venus Williams - 11/1 – class player who seems to be fading with age. She hasn’t played very much tennis as a lead up to this event so you need to wonder about her fitness. I’ll pass on her even making the finals.

    Caroline Wozniacki - 16/1 – Another good player that hasn’t quite reached the top. She is a good player and should make the semi-finals – can she go on from there? I’ll pass on her as well.

    Dinara Safina - 20/1 – Got to number one last year and was dubbed the luckiest player in tennis – she achieved number one status by winning a pile of minor events yet no major events at all. The others are in better form I think.

It will be tough to pick a winner from this lot – in fact, we may even have missed her since there are so many top women coming through. Our tip – Justine Henin, but watch out for Clijsters yet again. One thing is certain, you are going to get some decent tennis betting odds this year.

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Jan 15

This weekend’s Premier League football looks to be testing with a couple of games that could provide surprise results. The first surprise could come as early as 12:45 tomorrow when the out-of-form Reds travel to the furnace known as Stoke City. Liverpool are not only out of form, they are missing three of their top line players in Steven Gerrard, Fernando Torres and Yossi Benayoun.

Stoke are always difficult to beat at home. Punters are deserting the Reds in droves with Stoke’s overnight odds coming in from 4/1 to 3/1 while the Reds continue to ease in betting. Their latest price was 5/4 after being shades of odds-on yesterday. Look to Stoke to add another nail to the Benitez coffin.

Chelsea (1/4), Manchester United (1/6 v Burnley 18/1) and Tottenham (2/7 v Hull 12/1) all look to have easy home games against sides much lower on the table. Of the three, Chelsea may get a run for their money from Sunderland (14/1) but they should still grab the three points on offer.

Everton (2/1) at home to Manchester City (13/8) looks to be an interesting clash. The Toffees have had a poor run at home this season, losing 3 from 9. The last couple of clashes between these two have resulted in away wins so, statistically speaking, City should win. Everton looked to return to form last game but I don’t think it will be enough. Online sportsbooks are having difficulties separating the two but I tip City to win in a close game. The draw at 23/10 looks to be a reasonable bet as well.

Home sides should win the remaining matches although I find Sunday’s late game between Bolton (6/1) and Arsenal (8/13) an interesting tussle. Arsenal travel to Bolton on Sunday then three days later Bolton return the favour traveling to Arsenal for a catch-up match. These games can be tricky to pick when it comes to betting on football. Bolton are in the relegation zone – just. Arsenal are in the top three but with points to spare. Expect a strong showing from the home side and don’t be surprised if they walk away sharing the points. The draw at 3/1 looks to be great value here with Arsenal’s odds looking to be poor value.

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Jan 13

The first leg of the Carling Cup semi-finals take place tomorrow night with Blackburn hosting Aston Villa – the big chill permitting. The match should take place as conditions ease and it should be an interesting match to watch. The midweek cups are renown for their upsets and I don’t see tomorrow as being any different.

Blackburn have had a fair season to date and while they only sit a few points above the relegation zone, there are another eight or so sides with them. A couple of wins and they will sail into the top half of the competition.

Villa have had a great start to the season, however, the last month has seen the wheels fall off a little. They have slipped out of the top four and need a couple of decent wins to get back. They host Arsenal at the end of the month, which could be a season deciding match for them. In the meantime, does the coaching staff field a full strength squad or do they reserve their players for their next Premier League game on Sunday.

Bookmakers have been quite generous with Blackburn’s odds quoting them at 2/1 in early markets. Villa are poor value at 4/6 away from home in a match they may not be placing too much emphasis on. At the odds, Blackburn Rovers look to be specials to deliver a handsome reward.

The FA Cup also continues tonight with Liverpool hosting Reading. The home side should win easily, however, Reading played well in their first game and should really have won. Liverpool are at poor odds of 2/9 with Reading at 14/1. Our tip – leave your wallet in your pocket.

Newcastle host Plymouth in the second FA Cup match tonight. Once again, the home side are favoured to win with football betting odds of 1/2. Plymouth have been kept safe at 7/1. It’s Newcastle to win in a romp – back them to win to nil on the scoreline. I’ll be back on Friday with a preview of this weekend’s action in the Premier League.

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Jan 11

With the winter conditions causing the postponement of all but three Premier League matches over the weekend, we are fairly limited to football betting options today. There is a good chance that tonight’s Manchester City – Blackburn game will go ahead, but with City at 4/7 to win and Blackburn drifting to 8/1, it seems like a poor betting match anyway.

The African Nations Cup is another football betting options. There are two matches today followed by another two tomorrow. Tournament favourites Ivory Coast at 1/3 today to defeat Burkina Faso (11/1) while Algeria are 8/13 to defeat Malawi (6) in the second game.

Tomorrow offers much more in the way of betting opportunities with Nigeria 8/5 to defeat Egypt at 2/1. At 2/1 Egypt looks to be fairly good value in a match that is pretty wide open.

The second game tomorrow is equally close with Benin 11/8 to beat Mozambique (9/4). Benin should win this encounter although the draw at 9/4 is pretty good value as well. We’ll tip a draw in this game.

With Togo withdrawing (at least temporarily), the markets have opened up. Ivory Coast are favoured to win at 5/1 followed by Cameroon at 5/1, Ghana at 6/1 and Nigeria and Egypt both at 17/2.

It is another interesting comparison with Egypt and Nigeria both quoted at 17/2 to win the cup, yet Nigeria are favourite to beat Egypt in tomorrow’s game. Which ever team wins you will see their outright odds firm considerably. If you think Egypt are a chance at winning the cup, you would have to back them tomorrow to beat Nigeria – they have to if they hope to make it through the pool stage.

Hopefully we will have some EPL action before the week is out. Online sportsbooks are running low on betting options – they are resorting to betting now on whether or not an event will take place.

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